Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, Texas, USA, May 2025. Paper Number: OTC-35818

In an effort to enhance safety and efficiency in offshore drilling operations, this research addresses critical gaps in the current understanding and application of leading indicators for Loss of Well Control (LOWC) events. Existing indicators often fall short in predicting LOWC events accurately and in a timely manner, due to lack of integration of real-time data which is crucial for proactive risk management. Our study aims to bridge these gaps by identifying robust leading indicators and incorporating them into an advanced real-time detection and response system.

The research began with a comprehensive analysis of existing LOWC events to identify the key leading indicators. Employing advanced data analytics techniques, including Data Assimilation (DA), and Change-Point-Bayesian Networks (CP-BN), we have developed an integrated real-time kick detection and state estimation framework and evaluated the effectiveness and reliability of the identified indicators. This evaluation was supported by extensive testing, including real-time and offline simulations, as well as full-scale experiments where operational parameters were adjusted to replicate various drilling scenarios.

Several key leading indicators were identified based on this study, such as abnormal pressure fluctuations, unexpected changes in drilling fluid properties, and precursors detected through distributed fiber-optic sensing data. We conducted a series of surveys and engaged with industry professionals to gather practical insights and feedback to further validate these findings and enhance the applicability of our results. The integration of these indicators into the kick-detection and state-estimation framework significantly enhanced early detection capabilities. Experimental testing and assessment of the integrated framework in a full-scale system have demonstrated their operational viability, markedly improved preventive safety measures, and contributed to the reduction of overall system risks.

This research represents an advancement in operational safety for offshore drilling operations, facilitating the development of proactive approaches that enable drilling crews to respond more effectively to emerging threats and reduce the likelihood of LOWC incidents. It serves as a foundational study for continued safety enhancements in the oil and gas industry, encouraging the ongoing refinement of safety practices.